I know it’s kind of close, but I have no time to do this anymore so sorry to whoever has been out there waiting for this, if any. Anyway, tomorrow are the Oscars 2006 and while I expect maybe just 1 or 2 surprises and the rest is pretty much all locks, the night will still be exciting and great.
I will only fully predict the bigger categories since I have no idea between sound and sound editing and I don’t care to know either. I would like for Hustle & Flow’s “It’s Hard Out There for a Pimp” to win for Best Song, but I don’t see it happening. It’s the first rap song even being performance at the ceremony, but a rap song already won an Oscar (Eminem for 8 Mile) so I’m going with Dolly Parton’s “Travelin’ Thru” just because she’s the only name in the competition, and nobody has heard that Crash song.
I also expect King Kong and its WETA team to win all the Best Special Effects awards and even the Best Sound awards, though Memoirs of a Geisha could win this last few and also Best Art Direction and Best Costume Design. The Chronicles of Narnia will take Best Make-up.
For the bigger names here but still technical awards, Gustavo Santaolalla will take Best Score for Brokeback Mountain over the superpowerful John Williams who I predict will cancel himself having 2 nominations here for Munich and Geisha. Best Editing will go to Crash and Brokeback Mountain should also take Best Cinematography in the name of Rodrigo Prieto.
Then Palestine’s Paradise Now and South Africa’s Tsotsi will fight for the Best Foreign Language film award, but I predict Paradise Now to take it. Best Animated Film will go to Wallace & Gromit (they’ve won 3 previous Best Animated Short Oscars before) and finally Best Documentary will go, sadly, to box office champion March of the Penguins instead of to the amazing Murderball.
And now the big awards:
Best Original Screenplay will be all about Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco’s work in Crash, a movie that despite being released early in the year, has had very strong legs and it’s pretty much a lock to win it now. Syriana’s screenplay by Stephen Gaghan had a hard time getting here since it was originally considered as adapted and they changed. Woody Allen is back and the nomination for Match Point is enough for now. The Squid and the Whale should have a chance, it’s amazing, but the lack of support in the other categories tells me it won’t happen for Noah Baumbach. And finally the only possible spoiler is Good Night, and Good Luck for two reasons. The film will probably not win anything else, and Clooney is not a lock for Best Supporting Actor for Syriana, so if he doesn’t win that one at the beginning of the night then he could end up taking this one for writing with Grant Heslov.
Hakeem’s Prediction: Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco for Crash.
Best Adapted Screenplay is a lock for Brokeback Mountain and its writers Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, unless for some reason the Academy decides to go with Crash for Best Picture, and so Dan Futterman could take this one for Capote. I don’t think so. The Constant Gardener’s Jeffrey Caine and A History of Violence’s Josh Olson don’t have a chance, while there’s a minimal chance for Munich to take awards, especially from some very respected (but totally wrong in this case) big name critics, and so Tony Kushner and Eric Roth could win this if that happens, but don’t expect it.
Hakeem’s Prediction: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana for Brokeback Mountain.
Best Supporting Actress went from being an easy pick before the Golden Globes to being one of the toughest ones to predict. Frances McDormand for North Country and Catherine Keener for Capote have no chance. The former for having won before, and the latter for deserving one but not for this very small part that is not even important to the main story. So it’ll be all between Amy Adams for Junebug, a beloved performance in a great little movie nobody watched but me and a few others, Michelle Williams for her astonishing work in Brokeback Mountain, the early favorite, and the now most probable winner Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener who won the Golden Globe and the SAG. She’s the obvious pick right now, and she deserves one for her great career, but I don’t want her to win for this. Also, Adams and Williams are to young win it now, but the Academy loves to give these supporting Oscars not to the locks.
Hakeem’s Prediction: Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain.Best Supporting Actor should go to George Clooney, a great performance, but mostly because he’s not winning the other 2. I would love for Matt Dillon to win it, his was my favorite performance in Crash and it’s his strongest work in a very long and respected career. Jake Gyllenhaal will be happy with his nom for Brokeback Mountain, and William Hurt should too with a nom for 8 minutes of work. And then it comes Paul Giamatti for Cinderella Man. He was overlooked twice already, and everybody loves him, but this role was not in the same caliber as his previous work, and he shouldn’t win for it, so Clooney has the best Chance.
Hakeem’s Prediction: George Clooney for Syriana.
Best Actress will definitely go to Reese Witherspoon for her excellent portrayal of June Carter Cash in Walk the Line. She sings in the movie, and cries and she’s tough and she has an accent to do. It’s just perfect. There’s been some buzz for Felicity Huffman’s work in Transamerica, the only possible spoiler, but still, nobody has seen it, and giving to the beautiful and happy Reese will be just a delight for the Academy.
The other 3 have no chance. Charlize Theron won a few years ago so she’s out for her work in the not great North Country. Keira Knightley was excellent in Pride & Prejudice but the nom is all they are giving her hoping she stops doing crap like Domino. And Dame Judi Dench (for Mrs. Henderson Presents) should be happy with this out of respect nom.
Hakeem’s Prediction: Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line.
Best Actor will go to Philip Seymour Hoffman for sure. His amazing performance in Capote plus the fact that everybody likes him and also that he deserves one for an excellent career of weirdly amazing characters make him a lock to win. Joaquin Phoenix was a favorite once for his work as Johnny Cash in Walk the Line but then it all faded. He won the Golden Globe and that will be all he gets this Awards Season. Then we have the other critics’ darling David Strathairn for Good Night, and Good Luck. Great performance, very monotone for me, but still great. He has little chance though, especially since he’s being considered 4th in line even behind the beloved and well respected, and in my opinion the actor of the year, Terrence Howard and his marvelous work as a pimp with a dream in Hustle & Flow. But the only one with a chance to beat Philip right now is Heath Ledger who I loved Brokeback Mountain and still maintain that did a better job with a more difficult job. But the Golden Globe went to Hoffman, the SAG went to Hoffman, and pretty much everything else went to Hoffman so the chances are slim.
Hakeem’s Prediction: Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote.
Best Director will go to Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain. He’s won all the critics’ awards, and he’s really loved and respected by everybody. Brokeback was a risky move, but he took it and made something wonderful with it. Newbie Bennett Miller can be happy he was nominated and then the other 2 up for the award have little chance. Steven Spielberg got the nod out of respect for a very political film and the risks he took with it, but he’s not getting away with this one. And George Clooney has more chances than him, just because he’s got to win at least one having 3 nominations, but this is the one where he has less chances to do so.
Hakeem’s Prediction: Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain.
Best Picture will go indisputably to Brokeback Mountain. It’s the most awarded movie of the year and a movie that despite it’s controversial theme, has become one of the most talked about films ever. People who haven’t seen it love it and quote it like crazy. And all those who say that didn’t like it it’s because they are afraid to admit it or because they are pushing for a different film. Crash has had some buzz lately, with many big time critics saying it’ll win, but while it would be fine if it were to win, it’s not going to happen. Good Nigh, and Good Luck is a great little film, also loved and respected but it’s too small in comparison to the others, and it’s even worse for Capote, a film that didn’t even deserve to be nominated and whose spot should’ve gone instead to Walk the Line or A History of Violence. And finally Munich, which has currently very little chance. Just a few really loved it, but the general consensus is that it was a disappointment, especially since it was the frontrunner way back last year when it was announced.
Hakeem’s Prediction: Brokeback Mountain.
