Golden Globe 2006 Predictions

This Monday the 16th the Foreign Press will announce their Golden Globe winners in their annual gala, and here are my predictions. The Globes are the most important awards after the Oscars, and even though they sometimes go different ways, the Globes always end up helping someone's chances to get nominated or win later at the Oscars if it is a close race.

Best Original Song should go to A Love That Will Never Grow Old from Brokeback Mountain, though they will probably go with Alanis Morissette and her Narnia song Wunderkind. Mostly because of the big name she is. Remember last year when they gave it to Mick Jagger for the Alfie song and then he didn't get an Oscar nom. That sucked though, because the song ruled and deserved to win, but the point is that the Globes like to go with a big name (Bono was a winner too a few years ago and then lost the Oscar to Eminem).
Hakeem's Prediction: Alanis Morissette's Wunderkind from The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.

Best Original Score should go to Gustavo Santaolalla's sublime work in Brokeback. The way he played just the right tunes when the lead characters interacted with each other gave their love even more resonance. John Williams has had the most buzz so far having scored three big movies this year, and his Memoirs of a Geisha one was probably the best of them (War of the Worlds and Munich were also his). The award will go to him this time, but expect Santaolalla to take the big one home next month.
Hakeem's Prediction: John Williams for Memoirs of a Geisha.

Best Foreign Film should go to Kung Fu Hustle, even though it was originally released years ago and it's not eligible for this year’s Oscar. But it got released here in the States this year so it qualifies for the Globes, and it's my favorite of the ones nominated. Not sure why OldBoy wasn't nominated, or The Edukators, Downfall or 2046. Very weird nominations. Anyway, the Globe will go to Paradise Now or Tsotsy, two very important movies. Of the two I've only seen Paradise Now and it's excellent, and I'm making it my pick for the fact that many other movies this year have included Palestinian suicide bombers (like Syriana and Munich), but none of them was as good as this one.
Hakeem's Prediction: Paradise Now from Palestine.

Best Screenplay will be all about Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco's work in Crash, a movie that despite being released early in the year, has had very strong legs and it's pretty much a lock for an Oscar nom. Nobody will probably go with Haggis as a director being that this is his first big job behind the camera, and they snubbed him last year for his Million Dollar Baby screenplay so this year they are giving it to him no matter what. Munich and Brokeback have no chance here, especially with Crash being an original work. Woody Allen's Match Point should have a chance. This is his best work in years it seems and the screenplay is always his strongest work, but there's no buzz. That he came back with something great and was nominated is award enough I think. The only one that could upset Crash is George Clooney for Good Night, and Good Luck, mostly because Clooney should end the night with at least one award, and this is his best chance, a politically charged script that he also directed. Still, I'm predicting he'll win none.
Hakeem's Prediction: Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco for Crash.

Best Supporting Actress is an easy category, especially since my favorite one, Amy Adams in Junebug, was criminally omitted, so they are most likely going with Michelle Williams' work in Brokeback. She's new to this, and she's young and her performance was excellent even if it was kind of smallish. I did not like Frances McDormand's work (North Country), nor Rachel Weisz's (The Constant Gardener), whose character I actually hated, but I did not like their movies so I guess that doesn't help. Shirley MacLaine was good in In Her Shoes, a movie I really liked, but I felt that both Cameron Diaz and Toni Collette gave better performances.
Hakeem's Prediction: Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain.

Best Supporting Actor should go to Matt Dillon. His was my favorite performance in Crash and it's his strongest work in a very long career where he's done pretty much everything. I was actually surprised that they nominated him though, but it makes total sense. This is a tough category since everybody is nominating very different people. Will Ferrell (The Producers) has no chance though, nor Bob Hoskins for Mrs. Henderson Presents, unless he wins and then he’s a front-runner for the Oscar. The other two spots are Clooney for Syriana and Paul Giamatti for Cinderella Man. Again, Clooney should win something, though for this would be wrong, because his character was a lead in the movie. Giamatti lost best actor last year here and then was snubbed of an Oscar nom, so maybe the Globes will give it to him this time to cement his chances for an Oscar. I liked his performance, worthy of a nomination I mentioned in my review, but he needed a big scene that would make you give him the award. The again, I said the same thing about Morgan Freeman last year and he won the Oscar (though not the Globe).
Hakeem's Prediction: Matt Dillon for Crash.

Best Actress in a Drama I can't really call, because I haven't seen Felicity Huffman's work in TransAmerica, the front-runner so far. Of the rest, I absolutely loved Gwyneth Paltrow in Proof, and it's one of my top three female performances of the year, but the movie didn't make any money and has had no buzz, so we can probably count her out. Then we have Maria Bello for A History of Violence, where hers was a very strong but supporting performance; Ziyi Zhang for Memoirs of a Geisha, where she was overshadowed by Michelle Yeoh's fantastic work; and Charlize Theron for North Country, which was a great performance in a movie I didn't like. Plus none of them have had any buzz lately. Felicity Huffman's had all the buzz needed (though not as much as Witherspoon, thank God she's in the other category), and the role (that of a transsexual) looks and sounds like it works and it's very strong, so I'm going with her (plus she won't win for her TV role in Desperate Housewives so this one is for her).
Hakeem's Prediction: Felicity Huffman for TransAmerica.

Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical will definitely go to Reese Witherspoon for her excellent portrayal of June Carter in Walk the Line. She sings in the movie, and cries and she's tough and she has an accent to do. It's just perfect. The other big reason she'll win is because none of the other performances is even close enough to hers. Sarah Jessica Parker being here is just the Foreign Press showing her love (she's been nominated like 8 straight years now, tying Nicole Kidman I think who had the same support last year with that Birth nomination). Yes, she gives the best performance in The Family Stone, but it's not a lead role, they were all supporting there, so she's out here. Laura Linney the same, great performance, but supporting, and it's worst that Parker because Jeff Daniels and the kids were better than her. Then Judy Dench and Keira Knightley, the only ones that could upset Reese. I don't think the Dame will be able to pull it off, just because Mrs. Henderson Presents has received mediocre reviews at best (I haven't seen the movie so I can't give an opinion performance wise). Knightley on the other hand, I saw and was delighted. She's breathtaking in Pride & Prejudice, and the movie has received excellent reviews all stating that she's great. With so few great female performances this year, there's some talk of Keira upsetting Reese and then P&P taking the big award from Walk the Line, but I just don't see it.
Hakeem's Prediction: Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line.

Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical will go to Joaquin Phoenix. Now, I don't think at all that his performance is better Jamie Foxx's last year, but Joaquin does his own singing in Walk the Line, and that has to count for something. Still, Phoenix is just great in the movie, and he doesn't have much competition to tell you the truth. Johnny Depp is out, this was a weird nom for portraying a totally weird character, which is good, but there's no way they are giving him the award. His Michael Jackson's Willy Wonka is not in the same league as his Keith Richards' Captain Jack Sparrow. Then Cillian Murphy is nominated just because the role is difficult, another transsexual. But Breakfast on Pluto has received bad reviews, and there's no buzz for him so he's out. Nathan Lane being here is just like Kevin Spacey's nom last year. There's a musical, they need to nominate its people, but Lane's performance is not worthy of awards. Pierce Brosnan being nominated is just great, though again not worthy of an award. But I'm glad he's here because his work in The Matador is great, and totally against his usual James Bond, and Thomas Crow, and that After the Sunset guy. The only possible upset could be by Jeff Daniels for his excellent performance in The Squid and the Whale, a movie I loved (number 27 in my best of the year list) and thought it was better than Walk the Line. And Daniels has had a career where he's done everything (just to think that he was in Dumb and Dumber) and this would be a good tie to reward him and give him a much needed boost for the Oscars. I'm predicting that the Foreign Press will go with Walk the Line all the way but if they don't, then Daniels is winning this one.
Hakeem's Prediction: Joaquin Phoenix for Walk the Line.

Best Actor in a Drama is the toughest call of the night. Cinderella Man's Russell Crowe is out, as is Terrence Howard for Hustle & Flow. I would love for him to win which would probably get him an Oscar nom, but I don't think so. Then one of the locks for an Oscar nom is David Strathairn for Good Night, and Good Luck. I don't really love his performance of Ed Murrow. It's very blank and monotonous. And critics have loved him so far, but they are all going with Philip Seymour Hoffman and his spot on, creepy wonderful performance of Truman Capote in Capote, another movie I didn't love. My personal pick is Heath Ledger and his mind-blowing work in Brokeback Mountain, where he's just perfect. The thing is that Hoffman deserves an award, there's no doubt about that, and the Foreign Press will give him the Globe, but I don't think he'll get the Oscar next month. The big one will go to Ledger who gives a better performance with a more difficult role, and is a character more likeable than Hoffman's. You leave Capote not liking him, and that's going to influence the voters towards Ledger's (without saying too much so I don't spoil it) heartbroken ending.
Hakeem's Prediction: Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote.

Best Director will go to Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain. He's won all the other critics' awards, and he's loved by the Foreign Press having nominated him for Sense and Sensibility and giving him the Globe for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (btw, all his great work gets awarded every 5 years it seems, 1996, 2001 and now in 2006). The other nominees are all out of the picture except for George Clooney who has a minimal chance, but again, because of the fact that he has 3 noms and should win one. But he won't be able to pull it off, Ang Lee is just too strong. Then Woody Allen could have a chance, he's nominated for directing and for the screenplay, and Match Point is nominated for best picture and Scarlett is nominated too, but there's no buzz for him, especially in the Best Screenplay category, so a directing award seems pretty impossible. Peter Jackson and Steven Spielberg are out just because King Kong and Munich didn't get a best picture nom (and pretty weird that David Cronenberg didn't get a nom since his A History of Violence is nominated). And then Fernando Meirelles for The Constant Gardener, another movie I didn't like. Politically charged and important, but Weisz's character I totally hated and that hurt my view of the movie. The movie did get a best picture nom, and Weisz did get nominated, but the screenplay and Ralph Fiennes were overlooked, so I'm counting Meirelles out.
Hakeem's Prediction: Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain.


Best Picture Musical/Comedy is a weak category. The Producers was bad I thought and it's here because it's a musical. The Squid and the Whale didn't get its screenplay nominated, the best thing it has, so it's here just because there's nothing else to nominate. The same goes to Mrs. Henderson Presents. Bad reviews, and no support for acclaimed director Stephen Frears, but it's European so that gave it the spot. Again, there's talk of a Pride & Prejudice upset, and even though I loved the movie and though it was better than Walk the Line, there's no way the Johnny Cash biopic is not winning. Ok, so no love for director James Mangold (who didn't impress me at all), but the movie will win the acting awards so this is pretty much a lock.
Hakeem's Prediction: Walk the Line.

Best Picture Drama will go indisputably to Brokeback Mountain. Is the most awarded movie of the year by the critics, and it's had all the buzz in the world. It's an important movie, revolutionary even, that everybody is respecting and giving it their praise. Plus it'll win awards for all its nominated performances and its director, so there's no way it's losing here. Good Night, and Good Luck is a distant second, especially with Munich not nominated. And btw, I'm not liking how some of the press is pushing for Munich lately. They didn't even like it judging by the mostly mediocre reviews and a rotten rating from the big name critics.
But whatever, it's not here, and so Clooney's movie is the only possible upset, but the movie is just so small that I think it's impossible. Then it's Match Point, which's gotten a ton of nominations but mostly because everybody is happy Woody Allen is back; then it's The Constant Gardener which did not get enough noms like to do any fighting here; and finally A History of Violence with pretty much the same problem, no Cronenberg, no screenplay, and no Viggo Mortensen.
Hakeem's Prediction: Brokeback Mountain.