Oscar 2005 Predictions

Here are my predictions for the 2005 Academy Awards.
I'll only predict and detail the big categories but I do have some short comments about the rest.

A locked category is Best Animated Picture which will go to The Incredibles. No doubt about that.
The Screenplay categories should be locked too, with Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor's Sideways (Adapted) and Charlie Kaufman's Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (Original) winning. Especially because they are going to be overlooked in the other categories. Still, some say Paul Haggis' Million Dollar Baby could beat Sideways', and that John Logan's The Aviator could beat Eternal Sunshine. I really hope not.
Foreign Film will go to The Sea Inside from Spain, which almost got its star Javier Bardem nominated for best actor, and has gotten lots of awards worldwide. Shame that The Motorcycle Diaries and House of Flying Daggers didn't make it because of their countries selections, as those two would be contenders here.
Best Song I'm going with the Counting Crows and their 'Accidentally in Love' song from Shrek 2, or Josh Groban could win it for his Polar Express' 'Believe' song. Personally, I'm rooting for my home country of Uruguay and Jorge Drexler's 'Al Otro Lado del Rio' song from The Motorcycle Diaries.
Best Visual Effects will go to Spiderman 2, most of the rest of the Technical Awards will go to The Aviator, with The Passion of the Christ winning Best Makeup.

And now the Big Categories:

Best Supporting Actress:
Cate Blanchett, "The Aviator"
Laura Linney, "Kinsey"
Virginia Madsen, "Sideways" - WILL WIN
Sophie Okonedo, "Hotel Rwanda"
Natalie Portman, "Closer" - SHOULD WIN

This is a very hard category, as we the front runners have more reasons to win besides their excellent performances in the movies they're nominated for. I don't think Laura Linney and Sophie Okonedo have chances. Yes, excellent performances, but as good as the other three ladies.
From the other three, Cate Blanchett has against her that she's playing Katherine Hepburn. It's an excellent performance but I don't know if I want to give her the Oscar or to Hepburn. If it's not going to Virginia, it'll go for sure to Cate.
Virginia Madsen is the comeback of the year. She's been working for years and years in B movies, and now she got an excellent part and she was amazing. She has the smallest screen time of them which could work against her but her movie is Sideways, which wont win Best Picture, didn't have the lead Paul Giamatti nominated, and I don't think they're going to give the Oscar to their two Supporting roles (explained later) so Virginia Madsen is going to take the Oscar home.
But the one that should be taking it home is Natalie Portman. Her Closer performance was just perfect. It's her first adult role, but she was so good, had a lot of screen time, and was paired against huge talents like Julia Roberts, Jude Law and Clive Owen.


Best Supporting Actor:
Alan Alda, "The Aviator"
Thomas Haden Church, "Sideways"
Jamie Foxx, "Collateral"
Morgan Freeman, "Million Dollar Baby" - WILL WIN
Clive Owen, "Closer" - SHOULD WIN

Jamie Foxx's Collateral performance was not supporting, and Alan Alda's part was too small (even Alec Baldwin's part was better in the Aviator), so I'm counting them out. It's all between Freeman, Haden Church and Owen.
Of those three, Clive Owen had the best performance for his movie Closer. The movie was a clash of amazing talents and Owen really came on top with a very powerful performance. He's the one that should win.
The winner will be between Morgan Freeman for Million Dollar Baby and Thomas Haden Church for Sideways. Freeman is due an Oscar, but I don't think he deserves it for this movie. Yes, it's a great performance, but unlike his costars (Hilary Swank and Clint Eastwood), I feel he failed to deliver the great final speech or action in the movie that would give him the Oscar. Haden Church was amazing and like his costar Virginia Madsen, he's making a comeback after years starring in soaps, and he also won most of the critic's awards, but not the Golden Globe nor the SAG award, plus he has against him that his performance is comedic as the Academy tends to go with dramatic performances. Also, I don't think both Sideways' supporting roles will be awarded, so if Virginia wins it at the start of the show, then Haden Church's chances are less, and Freeman will take it for a not perfect performance, but an excellent career.


Best Actress:
Annette Bening, "Being Julia"
Catalina Sandino Moreno, in "Maria Full of Grace"
Imelda Staunton, "Vera Drake"
Hilary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby" - SHOULD & WILL WIN
Kate Winslet, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"

Though Kate Winslett was my favorite performance of the year, in my favorite movie of the year, the powerful performance delivered by Hilary Swank can't be not awarded. It's just mindblowing.
I know she really has no competition, but people are still saying Imelda Staunton has a chance, while Annette Bening's buzz has faded. Catalina Sandina Moreno should happy to be there because that spot should've have gone to Uma Thurman, though she wouldn't have a chance against Hilary Swank either.


Best Actor:
Don Cheadle, "Hotel Rwanda"
Johnny Depp, "Finding Neverland"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Aviator"
Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"
Jamie Foxx, "Ray" - SHOULD & WILL WIN

This is the most locked category, as it's all about Jamie Foxx, who continues to amaze us with excellent performances while receiving prizes like in the Golden Globes or at the Screen Actors Guild awards. It's going to be his, and nothing can stop him like that he's going to lose votes to his Collateral nomination, or that his only real threat, Clint Eastwood, is getting lots of buzz right now. None of that matters, Foxx was perfect.


Best Director:
Martin Scorsese, "The Aviator" - WILL WIN
Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby" - SHOULD WIN
Taylor Hackford, "Ray"
Alexander Payne, "Sideways"
Mike Leigh, "Vera Drake"

It's all about Scorsese once again and how come he doesn't have an Oscar when even Eminem has one. Yes, it's crazy, Martin deserves to have one, but not for the Aviator. He's had better movies, but we wont stop talking about him until he wins. And he shouldn't this year.
Alexander Payne should have a chance to win, as his Sideways was excellent with amazing performances. Hackford and Leigh have no chance.
Clint Eastwood's mighty Million Dollar Baby is powerful, and with better performances. He deserves to win it again, but the Oscarless Scorsese will probably take this one to finally reward him for his great career.


Best Picture:
"The Aviator"
"Finding Neverland"
"Million Dollar Baby" - SHOULD & WILL WIN
"Ray"
"Sideways"

Eternal Sunshine should win, but ok, between the actual nominated movies, Million Dollar Baby is just the perfect drama with the perfect performances and story, and deserves to win. The Aviator is the dream movie that should have been perfect but wasn't, and it was just so overhyped that it didn't live to most people's (like me) expectations.
Sideways was the Critics Choice but it's just too small to compete with the magnitude of The Aviator, and it also falls short in the acting department against Million Dollar Baby's hard hitting performances.
Ray shouldn't be here and Finding Neverland was the early favorite with legs strong enough to get it nominated though there is no buzz around it anymore.
So it should and will be Clint Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby taking the gold, as Million Dollar Baby is the Best Picture of the Year.