Oscar Nominations 2005 Predictions

The Golden Globes are behind us, and this Tuesday 25th of January we'll have the Oscar nominations. Here are my predictions for the big categories, with the possible sixth choices and some surprises:

Best Supporting Actress: Although this is the category with the most better performance every year, this one wasn't the case, as there were only 5 supporting performances to talk about, and they have been nominated for everything.
We have Virginia Madsen (who has won almost every single critics award) for Sideways, Cate Blanchett for The Aviator, Laura Linney for Kinsey, Natalie Portman (who won the Golden Globe) for Closer and Kate Winslett for Finding Neverland.
Then we have the women of Ray (Sharon Warren, Regina King) and Hotel Rwanda (Sophie Okonedo), and even Meryl Streep for The Manchurian Candidate who was nominated for a Golden Globe, but they won't make it.

My Predictions:
- Virginia Madsen
- Cate Blanchett
- Laura Linney
- Natalie Portman
- Kate Winslett


Best Supporting Actor: there's always lots of great supporting performances but this year we've had just six that are worth mentioning: Thomas Haden Church for Sideways, Clive Owen for Closer, Morgan Freeman for Million Dollar Baby, Jamie Foxx for Collateral, Peter Sarsgaard for Kinsey, and David Carradine for Kill Bill vol 2.
Carradine's Bill is the best and most popular character of the six, but is also the one with less screen time. Jamie Foxx is going a lock to win for best actor so maybe they won't vote him for supporting since he has no chance to win it, plus they'd have space for someone else. And that someone else could very well be the number 7 in my list: Freddie Highmore, the kid from Finding Neverland, who had an excellent performance.
Between all those we have 3 locks: Haden Church, Owen (who won the Golden Globe but wasn't nominated for the Screen Actors Guild) and Freeman. Then Foxx is the strongest of the rest (his performance should have count for lead actor though) and the fifth spot is between Carradine, Sarsgaard and Highmore.

My Predictions:
- Thomas Haden Church
- Clive Owen
- Morgan Freeman
- Jamie Foxx
- Peter Sarsgaard


Best Actress: same as the supporting, the leading ladies race has been easy to predict. Hilary Swank for Million Dollar Baby and Annette Benning for Being Julia won the Golden Globes, and they will battle for the Oscar in a rematch of the 1999 race. Imelda Staunton (for Vera Drake) won most of the critic's awards, and then we have Kate Winslett's Eternal Sunshine performance which is the most loved of all of them.
The fifth spot will go to Kill Bill vol 2's Uma Thurman, one of the most popular performances of the year, and Catalina Sandina Moreno for Maria Full of Grace which was a terrific performance too.

My Predictions:
- Hilary Swank
- Annette Benning
- Imelda Staunton
- Kate Winslett
- Uma Thurman


Best Actor: this is the best race of the year. With so many to choose from, and all of them being excellent. Jamie Foxx for Ray is a lock to in the Oscar, so we only need four more. Leonardo DiCaprio in The Aviator was amazing, and he won the Golden Globe, so we can count him in. Then Paul Giamatti for Sideways is in too. He wasn't nominated two years ago for American Splendor, so they own it to him this year, and his performance in Sideways is amazing and deserving of a nomination.
Johnny Depp will take the fourth place for Finding Neverland which was the early favorite before December, and the fifth nomination is between two of the stronger ones: Don Cheadle for Hotel Rwanda and Javier Bardem for The Sea Inside. From these two, Cheadle has the best and more powerful movie so I'm going with him, but don't be surprised if Barden gets it, or Liam Neeson for Kinsey, or even Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby. Everybody is talking about the movie and Swank and Freeman, but some are saying that this is Clint's best performance and that he could be the surprise.

My Predictions:
- Jamie Foxx
- Leonardo DiCaprio
- Paul Giamatti
- Johnny Depp
- Don Cheadle


Screenplays: it doesn't matter who gets nominated. Lets just sit and enjoy Sideways' Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor's speech for Best Adapted Screenplay, and Eternal Sunshine's Charlie Kaufman Original Screenplay win.


Best Director: Martin Scorsese makes a new movie (this year The Aviator), Scorsese gets a nomination. Clint Eastwood won the Golden Globe for Million Dollar Baby, another lock, and Alexander Payne for Sideways is the other sure bet.
The other two are up for grabs between Taylor Hackford for Ray and Marc Forster for Finding Neverland, the two frontrunners for those two spots, but Mike Nichols for Closer, Michael Mann for Collateral and Bill Condon for Kinsey are fighting them. Michel Gondry for Eternal Sunshine is my favorite one, but nobody talks about him, Zhang Yimou could be the surprise for House of Flying Daggers, as well as Terry George for Hotel Rwanda which has been getting lots of buzz lately.

My Predictions:
- Clint Eastwood
- Martin Scorsese
- Alexander Payne
- Taylor Hackford
- Marc Forster


Best Picture: as with the Directors, we have three locks in The Aviator, Million Dollar Baby and Sideways, with Finding Neverland in the fourth position. The last spot will go to either Ray or Hotel Rwanda. I'm predicting that one will get Director and the other one Picture, and since Hotel Rwanda is the more important movie, I'm going with it for the fifth spot here.
Eternal Sunshine is the best movie of the year according to everybody minus the critics, because it was released too long ago. Still, it could fight for the fifth spot but I just don't see it happening.

My Predictions:
- Million Dollar Baby
- The Aviator
- Sideways
- Finding Neverland
- Hotel Rwanda